US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’? - a podcast by Phil Dobbie

Monday 9th August 2021

There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top end of a broad range of expectations. The question is, does this represent the substantial progress that the FOMC is looking for before tapering bond purchases. It depends on which Fed member you are listening to. We’ve seen the response to the jobs numbers in equity markets, bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. That’s contributed to a weaker Aussie and Kiwi dollar, which could take another hit from weaker trade data from China over the weekend. So, will the Aussie recover? Protracted lockdowns will have an impact, with NAB at odds with the RBA on near term growth. How quick the recovery, obviously depends on vaccine rates.

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