Finding the shape of the new abnormal - a podcast by Phil Dobbie

Thursday 16th July 2020

Just how long will the impact of COVID-19 drag on for. Shares are up today on more hopes that a vaccine will be found soon, but NAB’s David de Garis points to comments from the US Fed’s Patrick Harker who suggests we all need to adapt to the new abnormal. The Bank of Canada released its Monetary Policy report for July, charting the recovery, with growth easing after the reopening phase, during a period of recuperation. As discussed in today’s podcast, that’s when reality starts to set in, as government support measures are eased. That’s why you need to specifically look at ‘hours worked’ in today’s jobs numbers in Australia, rather than total employment numbers. There’s another possibly shape – the W recovery. The UK’s Sir Patrick Vallance released a report today suggesting a second wave in winter could be worse than the first.

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